PSPINC CEO Kenichi Uchikura's Blog

Something to Think About / The Dunning–Kruger Effect in Politics

The Dunning–Kruger effect is when people with little knowledge overestimate their ability, while experts often underestimate theirs. Politics makes this bias easy to see.

 

Complex issues like healthcare, the economy, and foreign policy require deep study and nuanced thinking. Yet, some people — after hearing a few headlines or social media posts — speak with absolute certainty. Their confidence comes from not knowing what they don’t know.

 

At rallies or online, bold, simple statements (“We just need to do X!”) spread quickly because they are easy to understand. In contrast, experts sound less decisive because they recognize complexity and potential trade-offs.

 

This creates a dangerous dynamic: confidence gets mistaken for competence, and oversimplified solutions dominate public debate. The effect reminds us to question loud certainty and value those willing to acknowledge uncertainty — often a sign of deeper understanding.

 

https://en.bloguru.com/ken/537082/something-to-think-about-the