PSPINC CEO Kenichi Uchikura's Blog

“The Largest Deal in History” — But Can Japan Really Afford It?
In July 2025, President Donald Trump made a bold declaration:

 

“We’ve completed a MASSIVE deal with Japan — perhaps the largest deal ever. Under my direction, Japan will invest $550 billion into the United States, and 90% of the profits will go to America.”
It sounded like a monumental win for the U.S. economy. But beneath the dramatic statement lie serious questions—and numbers that simply don’t add up.

 

Missing Details
Trump’s announcement lacked important facts:

 

When will this $550 billion investment happen? Over one year? A decade? No timeline was given.
Who is making this investment? Is it the Japanese government using public funds, or is it private corporations like Toyota and Sony?
How will the U.S. receive 90% of the profits from foreign investment? That defies normal business logic.
If Japanese companies invest in U.S. factories, they usually retain the profits, minus taxes and wages. No company would accept losing 90% of its return. Unless there's a special tax agreement (which has not been disclosed), this claim doesn’t make financial sense.

 

A Reality Check
Here’s the part that really matters:
Japan’s entire national budget in 2024 was around $745 billion. That’s for everything—defense, healthcare, infrastructure, pensions. A $550 billion investment overseas would consume nearly 75% of Japan’s total annual budget.

 

Can Japan actually afford to do this? It seems extremely unlikely.

 

Even if we assume the investment comes from the private sector, it’s still a stretch. Japan’s total foreign direct investment worldwide in 2023 was about $135 billion. Investing $550 billion in just one country would be unprecedented.

 

Political Theater?
Without documentation, this appears more like a campaign talking point than a signed agreement. No Japanese official has confirmed this deal. In fact, some reports from Japan suggest profit-sharing will follow conventional investment rules—returns based on actual contribution, not a flat 90% to the U.S.

 

My Thoughts
As someone with deep interest in U.S.–Japan relations, this announcement sounds less like an economic reality and more like political marketing. The numbers are eye-catching, but without facts to back them up, they mean little.

 

Deals of this size don’t happen without:

 

Parliamentary approval in Japan
Legal contracts
Clear investment structures
Transparent timelines
Until those emerge, we must view this as a bold claim—not a confirmed deal.

 

Final Note
Yes, America wants foreign investment. Yes, Japan is a key ally. But business is built on incentives, not slogans. If the terms are unclear or unrealistic, no government or company will sign up.

 

Big numbers make big headlines. But responsible leaders—and voters—should always ask: Where’s the substance?